Integração dos mercados de arroz entre as regiões norte, centro e Ssul de Moçambique

Abstract

This study analyzed the integration of rice markets in the northern, central, and southern regions of Mozambique, specifically among the markets of Cuamba, Nampula, Alto Molócuè, Beira, Chókwè, and Maputo. The study utilized monthly series of average retail market prices, covering the period from 2011 to 2020, collected by the Agricultural Markets Information System (SIMA). The analysis was conducted through the estimation of a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results indicated that, overall, in the short term, domestic rice markets were not perfectly integrated, as the coefficients suggested a non-proportional transmission of prices, thereby invalidating the assumptions of the Law of One Price, although there was integration among the markets in the central region. Among the regions, the integration between the southern markets and those in the central and northern regions stood out, with Chókwè integrated with Beira and Maputo integrated with Nampula. The Johansen test revealed the existence of three long-term relationships among rice prices in the six markets, indicating that, in the long term, rice markets in Mozambique were integrated with each other.