Os determinantes do spread bancário em Moçambique: 2013-2020

Abstract

Mozambique is one of the countries in the sub-Saharan region with the highest average banking spread, meaning that the demand for financing for consumption or investment by economic agents is reduced. Thus, this work seeks to identify the determinants of the banking spread in the period from 2013 to 2020, incorporating, in addition to macroeconomic and idiosyncratic variables, the role of expectations, whose importance economic theory recognizes. The study is based on a panel data sample of 11 commercial banks during the above-mentioned period, totaling 88 observations. To achieve the general objective, the multicollinearity test was performed before proceeding with the Hausman test to choose between the fixed-effects or random-effects model. It was found that multicollinearity is a problem present in the model, so the highly collinear variables were removed and transformed. The Hausman test indicated that the random effects model best fits the data under analysis. The random effects model indicated the presence of heteroscedasticity, non-normality of errors and autocorrelation, in this sense the Driscoll-Kray model was adopted in order to deal with these problems. The results of the study indicate that in Mozambique the banking spread is positively influenced by the lagged net interest margin and the expected inflation rate and negatively by the variables market share and GDP growth rate. It is worth noting that the variables that represent the expectations of economic agents are relevant in determining the banking spread in Mozambique(TRADUÇÂO NOSSA)